Canada has long been celebrated as a beacon for global talent, attracting highly skilled and educated immigrants to enrich our society and fuel our economy. But a new report from The Conference Board of Canada, “The Leaky Bucket 2025,” reveals a troubling reality: our immigration system is struggling to retain these valuable newcomers, leading to a significant and persistent brain drain. This isn’t just a minor issue; it’s a critical challenge that could impact Canada’s economic growth and competitiveness for decades to come.
The Alarming Numbers: A Deep Dive into the “Leaky Bucket”
The report’s findings, alongside other recent studies, paint a stark picture, showing that the very individuals Canada targets for their skills are the most likely to depart:
- A Fifth of Immigrants Leave – And It’s Worsening for the Highly Skilled: Over the past 25 years, a staggering one in five immigrants has left Canada through onward migration. The risk of departure is highest in the crucial first five years after landing, a period deemed “critical for retention” by the Conference Board. For higher-skilled immigrants, this risk is even more pronounced: they are more than twice as likely to leave Canada within five years than their lower-skilled counterparts.
- The Doctorate Dilemma: Highest Education, Highest Mobility: The data clearly shows a direct correlation between education level and the likelihood of leaving. Immigrants with doctorates are nearly twice as likely to leave Canada within five years compared to those with a bachelor’s degree. Within 25 years of landing, this disparity becomes even more pronounced, with doctorates more than twice as likely to depart than immigrants with secondary education or less. This challenges the very premise of selecting highly educated individuals, as their global marketability means they are quick to seek better opportunities elsewhere if unfulfilled in Canada.
- Critical Occupations Are Vulnerable to Outflow: Many of the occupations projected to be most in-demand over the next decade are experiencing the weakest retention rates. These are the very sectors Canada needs to innovate and grow:
- Legislators and senior managers top the list, with an astonishing 35% leaving within 25 years, far exceeding the overall 19% average.
- Business and finance managers see 10% depart within 5 years, rising to 32% within 25 years.
- Immigrants in Information and Communications Technology (ICT)—including computer, software, and web designers—experience 7% onward migration in 5 years, escalating to 19-21% within 25 years.
- Even essential roles like engineering and architecture managers and manufacturing and processing engineers face significant losses, with 6-7% leaving within 5 years and 15% within 25 years.
- Healthcare professionals, a critical sector facing severe shortages, see approximately 25% of immigrants with relevant experience depart within 25 years. This is particularly alarming given that immigrants account for a substantial portion of Canada’s healthcare workforce.
Beyond the Numbers: The Deeper Issues Driving Departure
The “Leaky Bucket” report and other research point to several systemic issues that contribute to these departures:
- Underemployment and De-skilling: A significant proportion of highly skilled immigrants in Canada find themselves working in jobs for which they are overqualified or outside their field of expertise. According to a 2022 Statistics Canada report on immigrant economic outcomes, immigrants with university degrees are significantly more likely to be overqualified for their jobs than Canadian-born graduates, especially in their early years in Canada. This underemployment leads to professional dissatisfaction, lower earnings, and a feeling of wasted potential, prompting many to look elsewhere.
- Credential Recognition Barriers: Despite Canada’s efforts, the process of recognizing foreign credentials remains a major hurdle. Many highly skilled professionals, particularly in regulated fields like healthcare and engineering, face lengthy, costly, and often opaque processes to get their qualifications recognized, forcing them into lower-skilled jobs or out of their professions entirely. This delay in full integration can be a powerful driver for onward migration.
- Economic Struggle Drives Departure: The Conference Board report highlights that stagnant or declining earnings are a major predictor of onward migration. Immigrants with doctorates facing no income growth are nearly three times more likely to leave over 15 years than those with bachelor’s degrees in a similar situation. Unemployment further compounds this, with 4.6% of unemployed immigrants with doctorates leaving within five years, compared to 2.8% for those with secondary education or less. This underscores that economic integration is paramount.
- Family Reunification and Social Integration: While less quantifiable, anecdotal evidence and some qualitative studies suggest that challenges in family reunification processes or difficulties in forming strong social ties can also contribute to onward migration. Immigrants often seek holistic well-being, not just economic opportunity.
- Global Competition for Talent: Canada isn’t the only country vying for skilled immigrants. Nations like the United States, Australia, and the United Kingdom offer competitive salaries, faster career progression, or specific opportunities that might draw immigrants away, especially those who feel their skills are not fully utilized in Canada.
The Broader Impact: More Than Just Lost Individuals
These departures are not just statistics; they represent a tangible loss to Canada’s future. With a record-low fertility rate of 1.26 births per woman and an aging population, Canada relies heavily on immigration to sustain its workforce and economic dynamism. The federal government’s decision to decrease immigration targets by up to 24% in the 2025-2027 Immigration Levels Plan, combined with this outflow of skilled talent, is projected to slow labor force growth and reduce real GDP by an estimated $16.2 billion in 2026.
This situation also creates a paradox: Canada’s selection policies prioritize highly skilled and educated individuals, yet these are often the most globally mobile and sought-after professionals who may find better opportunities or more aligned career paths elsewhere. In critical sectors, immigrants already make up a significant portion of the workforce—for example, 24% of construction managers, 25% of healthcare workers, 42% of physicists and astronomers, and 57% of chemists are immigrants. Losing these professionals deepens existing labor shortages and undermines Canada’s capacity for innovation and growth. The financial cost of attracting, processing, and integrating an immigrant, only for them to leave, also represents a significant public investment lost.Plugging the Leaks: A Call to ActionThe “Leaky Bucket 2025” report isn’t just about identifying problems; it offers concrete recommendations to transform insight into action:
- Develop a National Retention Policy Framework: Beyond simply selecting immigrants, Canada needs a comprehensive national strategy with clear targets and performance metrics to guide retention efforts. This involves setting goals not just for how many arrive, but how many stay and thrive.
- Invest in Tailored Settlement Supports: Highly skilled immigrants often face unique barriers. Investing in bridging programs, faster and more transparent licensing pathways, and personalized settlement plans, especially in the crucial first three to five years, can make a significant difference. These supports should recognize the distinct needs of professionals versus other immigrant classes.
- Implement Targeted Retention Strategies for High-Demand Occupations: For the occupations most critical to Canada’s economy and most vulnerable to outward migration, specific strategies are needed. This includes employer incentives, enhanced credential recognition mechanisms, and employment-focused settlement services that help immigrants connect with relevant job opportunities and build successful careers commensurate with their skills. Programs to combat underemployment are vital.
- Enhance Employer Capacity and Promote Inclusive Workplaces: Canadian employers play a vital role. By fostering welcoming workplaces, offering mentorship, and providing clear career development opportunities, they can significantly improve retention. This is particularly important in smaller communities where immigrant support networks may be less robust. Encouraging diversity and inclusion initiatives can also help create environments where newcomers feel valued and integrated.
